On Michael Pillsbury’s book The Hundred-Year Marathon

In his book, The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, Michael Pillsbury opines that in China there exists a secret political cabal which is assiduously working on a long term plan to topple the USA from the position of the world’s superpower. 

This would imply that the leaders of the last Chinese imperial dynasty, the Great Qing, which was overthrown in 1918, and post-Imperial leaders like Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping and the leaders of the post-Tiananmen Square massacre China were all part of the same secretive cabal which is determined to overthrow the USA and capture the world. 

This does not seem likely. It is impossible to visualize arch-enemies like Chiang Kai-shek, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping being part of the same cabal and having a singular geopolitical ambition. However, in the last two decades, China has shown a clear intention, if not the vision, to play a significant role in global geopolitics and economy. 

In my opinion, China’s marathon to capture the world from the USA began 20 to 25 years ago, and in 2024 it has achieved this goal to a significant extent. It is hard to predict what the world will be like by 2050, but it is likely that by then America will cease to be a superpower. But America’s fall might not automatically translate into China’s rise. 

In his book, Pillsbury presents China as a master of geopolitical deception. He writes: 

“Chinese literature on strategy from Sun Tzu through Mao Tse-tung has emphasized deception more than many military doctrines. Chinese deception is oriented mainly toward inducing the enemy to act inexpediently and less toward protecting the integrity of one’s own plans. In other cultures, particularly Western, deception is used primarily with the intention of ensuring that one’s own forces can realize their maximum striking potential … the prevalent payoff of deception for the Chinese is that one does not have to use one’s own forces.… Chinese tend to shroud their means in secrecy and not publicize the day-to-day activities of those in power; for surprise and deception are assumed to be vital.”

I think both the USA and China are masters of deception. Also, it is likely that when the USA ceases to be a superpower, China will decline, and that will pave way for multiple other centers of power to emerge. The age of a single superpower dominating the world is over. The world will not see America or Chinese hegemony in the times to come. 

Pillsbury’s book is fast-paced and entertaining but his theory that the Chinese have a secret cabal with a 100-year-old plan to overthrow the USA is unbelievable in light of China’s tumultuous and violent history in the 20th century.